Water FractalTier 2
at DTR STORE CHAMPS
decks
2
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
4-6-1
overall winrate
40.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.7%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
45.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1276
· median 1276
· range 1197–1355
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1141
Q3 1360
1642
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 28.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.3% | -1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -19.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.5% | +24.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Water Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
